Energy Markets Opinion Editorials

Thursday, 1 May 2025 09:26:20

Gulf Intelligence

US tariffs are not impacting China’s oil demand yet

US tariffs are not impacting China’s oil demand yet

30.4.2025

The next 100 days of Trump’s Presidency will be very telling for oil prices

The next 100 days of Trump’s Presidency will be very telling for oil prices

About 80% of US LNG exports are heading to Europe

About 80% of US LNG exports are heading to Europe

Likelihood of an Iran-US nuclear deal?

Likelihood of an Iran-US nuclear deal?

European Maritime Authorities Unwilling to Enforce UN Convention of the Law of the Sea

European Maritime Authorities Unwilling to Enforce UN Convention of the Law of the Sea

It’s difficult to definitively forecast what move OPEC+ will take next

It’s difficult to definitively forecast what move OPEC+ will take next

OPEC+ appears broadly content with current market dynamics

OPEC+ appears broadly content with current market dynamics

Trump is doing exactly what he set out to do - lower oil prices and weaken the dollar

Trump is doing exactly what he set out to do - lower oil prices and weaken the dollar

I don't think we've reached the bottom on oil

I don't think we've reached the bottom on oil

Any geopolitical risk premium left in oil prices?

Any geopolitical risk premium left in oil prices?

The Trump presidency is willing to buck convention and challenge all factions

The Trump presidency is willing to buck convention and challenge all factions

US tariffs have mostly impacted petrochemical feedstock demand so far

US tariffs have mostly impacted petrochemical feedstock demand so far

China is trying to avoid too much back and forth with the US on tariffs

China is trying to avoid too much back and forth with the US on tariffs

We’re revising our fiscal projections for Saudi Arabia

We’re revising our fiscal projections for Saudi Arabia

In Markets This Volatile, Even Gold Looks Risky!

In Markets This Volatile, Even Gold Looks Risky!

U.S. Oil Production Faces a Plateau—Or Worse

U.S. Oil Production Faces a Plateau—Or Worse

US Tariff War Risks Undermining Its Own Economic Legacy

US Tariff War Risks Undermining Its Own Economic Legacy

Europe’s Energy Dilemma and the Rising Reality of Global Demand

Europe’s Energy Dilemma and the Rising Reality of Global Demand

Trump has Blown Up Crucial Shipping Decarbonization Talks

Trump has Blown Up Crucial Shipping Decarbonization Talks

China’s Economic Storm: Why the Ripple Effects Will Be Global

China’s Economic Storm: Why the Ripple Effects Will Be Global

Tariffs, Oil, and Treacherous Terrain: Why Volatility Is the New Normal

Tariffs, Oil, and Treacherous Terrain: Why Volatility Is the New Normal

Strengths and Shifts in Global Shipping

Strengths and Shifts in Global Shipping

OPEC Strategy & Market Dynamics

OPEC Strategy & Market Dynamics

Oil Shock Signals the Dawn of a Global Economic Reset

Oil Shock Signals the Dawn of a Global Economic Reset

Middle Powers are Stepping Up in a World Reshaped by Trade Wars and Oil Shocks

Middle Powers are Stepping Up in a World Reshaped by Trade Wars and Oil Shocks

China's economic outlook is better than in 2H 2024

China's economic outlook is better than in 2H 2024

A lot of pressure on flat pricing has been driven by macroeconomic fears

A lot of pressure on flat pricing has been driven by macroeconomic fears

Non-compliance is a serious problem among OPEC+ members

Non-compliance is a serious problem among OPEC+ members

I see continued and elevated geopolitical risk

I see continued and elevated geopolitical risk

US drilling activity will be driven by economics

US drilling activity will be driven by economics

The US is playing a dangerous game with tariffs

The US is playing a dangerous game with tariffs

US Crude Blending Challenges Would Create an Opportunity for OPEC Barrels

US Crude Blending Challenges Would Create an Opportunity for OPEC Barrels

The recent attack by the US on the Houthis was not expected

The recent attack by the US on the Houthis was not expected

Many ship owners remain cautious about the Red Sea

Many ship owners remain cautious about the Red Sea

Potential market impact from ‘maximum pressure’ US sanctions on Iran?

Potential market impact from ‘maximum pressure’ US sanctions on Iran?

We’ve got a fundamentally soft market

We’ve got a fundamentally soft market

I wouldn't necessarily attribute the OPEC+ decision to geopolitical factors

I wouldn't necessarily attribute the OPEC+ decision to geopolitical factors

OPEC chose a very inopportune time to release this extra balance

OPEC chose a very inopportune time to release this extra balance

Gulf States Keen to See the US and Iran Avoid Escalation

Gulf States Keen to See the US and Iran Avoid Escalation

US tariff policy has dislocated New York futures commodity markets

US tariff policy has dislocated New York futures commodity markets

The decision by OPEC+ was unexpected

The decision by OPEC+ was unexpected

The market was modestly surprised, but not shocked by OPEC+ plans to proceed adding barrels in April

The market was modestly surprised, but not shocked by OPEC+ plans to proceed adding barrels in April

FUTURE PROOFING: ADNOC and OMV Forge $60 Billion Global Polyolefins Powerhouse

FUTURE PROOFING: ADNOC and OMV Forge $60 Billion Global Polyolefins Powerhouse

Michelle Bockmann

Michelle Bockmann

The aggressive push for climate change policies has softened since Covid

The aggressive push for climate change policies has softened since Covid

We're facing the same level of uncertainty in the Mideast region as before Trump took office

We're facing the same level of uncertainty in the Mideast region as before Trump took office

We should hear something about the OPEC+ decision on April volumes by next week

We should hear something about the OPEC+ decision on April volumes by next week

Shipping risks in the Red Sea remain elevated

Shipping risks in the Red Sea remain elevated

The market has absorbed the impact of the Biden administration’s January sanctions on Russian oil

The market has absorbed the impact of the Biden administration’s January sanctions on Russian oil

Europe is struggling to find outlets for its refined products

Europe is struggling to find outlets for its refined products

Trump is attempting to renegotiate a new financial architecture for the US economy

Trump is attempting to renegotiate a new financial architecture for the US economy

OPEC+ is in a very tough spot right now

OPEC+ is in a very tough spot right now

A New Era of Transactional Diplomacy

A New Era of Transactional Diplomacy

A deal between Russia and Ukraine would have serious implications for energy trade

A deal between Russia and Ukraine would have serious implications for energy trade

If the G7 price cap had ever been successful, OFAC wouldn’t have needed to sanction 150 tankers on January 10.

If the G7 price cap had ever been successful, OFAC wouldn’t have needed to sanction 150 tankers on January 10.

Independent refiners in China have been hit by reduced crude availability.

Independent refiners in China have been hit by reduced crude availability.

OPEC+ compliance in 2024 averaged over 90%

OPEC+ compliance in 2024 averaged over 90%

The Trump administration has been the proverbial nail in the coffin for any immediate progress on normalization of relationships in the Mideast region.

The Trump administration has been the proverbial nail in the coffin for any immediate progress on normalization of relationships in the Mideast region.

OPEC+ should act decisively and seize the opportunity now to secure market share.

OPEC+ should act decisively and seize the opportunity now to secure market share.

It remains in question whether OPEC+ can return barrels to the market end of Q1.

It remains in question whether OPEC+ can return barrels to the market end of Q1.

Global gas markets are very tight.

Global gas markets are very tight.

OPEC+ has charted a prudent course given the complexities of the global market.

OPEC+ has charted a prudent course given the complexities of the global market.

Iran’s capacity to leverage hard power in the Gulf region has been diminished.

Iran’s capacity to leverage hard power in the Gulf region has been diminished.

The Middle East faces a year of political settlements, reconstruction, and removal of sanctions.

The Middle East faces a year of political settlements, reconstruction, and removal of sanctions.

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is unlikely to settle in 2025.

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is unlikely to settle in 2025.

Saudi Arabia’s Cautious Approach to Expanding Oil Capacity Exemplifies a Long-term Strategy

Saudi Arabia’s Cautious Approach to Expanding Oil Capacity Exemplifies a Long-term Strategy

Energy Security & Transition aren’t Competing interests but Complementary Opportunities

Energy Security & Transition aren’t Competing interests but Complementary Opportunities

$70 BRENT OIL IN 2025: Why Kuwait’s Investments Are Built for the Long Term

$70 BRENT OIL IN 2025: Why Kuwait’s Investments Are Built for the Long Term

We expect a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this year, but not a full peace deal.

We expect a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this year, but not a full peace deal.

I expect China's oil imports to be flat this year - even that would be a good outcome.

I expect China's oil imports to be flat this year - even that would be a good outcome.

India’s oil imports are not necessarily commensurate to its GDP growth.

India’s oil imports are not necessarily commensurate to its GDP growth.

South Asia is in a unique position within the global economy today.

South Asia is in a unique position within the global economy today.

Rising public debt rates are a burden on South Asian economies growth prospects.

Rising public debt rates are a burden on South Asian economies growth prospects.

TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS

TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS

Japan’s aim to cut LNG use for power generation is being stymied by competitive dynamics in the electricity market.

Japan’s aim to cut LNG use for power generation is being stymied by competitive dynamics in the electricity market.

We expect LNG prices to hover around $14–15 per MMBtu this year.

We expect LNG prices to hover around $14–15 per MMBtu this year.

LNG prices should remain supported into the new year, even as new supply comes online.

LNG prices should remain supported into the new year, even as new supply comes online.

The Fragile Balance of Asia’s Energy and Markets in 2025

The Fragile Balance of Asia’s Energy and Markets in 2025

“China’s ‘New Normal’: Oil Demand Growth Slows to 200,000–400,000 Barrels Per Day”

“China’s ‘New Normal’: Oil Demand Growth Slows to 200,000–400,000 Barrels Per Day”

Chinese refineries are evolving to focus on chemicals rather than gasoline or diesel.

Chinese refineries are evolving to focus on chemicals rather than gasoline or diesel.

A 5% growth rate for China this year is plausible, assuming a relatively stable global scenario.

A 5% growth rate for China this year is plausible, assuming a relatively stable global scenario.

Economic growth in China is increasingly driven by new energy and technology industries.

Economic growth in China is increasingly driven by new energy and technology industries.

How has the shipping sector reacted so far to US sanctions on Canadian oil?

How has the shipping sector reacted so far to US sanctions on Canadian oil?

Compliance within OPEC+ will continue to be a major issue this year.

Compliance within OPEC+ will continue to be a major issue this year.

The oil market is focusing on Trumps stance on tariffs for now.

The oil market is focusing on Trumps stance on tariffs for now.

Libya has been performing quite well in increasing its oil production.

Libya has been performing quite well in increasing its oil production.

LNG at a Crossroads - Navigating Growth, Volatility, and Geopolitical Risks?

LNG at a Crossroads - Navigating Growth, Volatility, and Geopolitical Risks?

President Trump’s stated energy policy objectives are inherently contradictory and highly impactful.

President Trump’s stated energy policy objectives are inherently contradictory and highly impactful.

OPEC+ Triumphs Amid Global Challenges

OPEC+ Triumphs Amid Global Challenges

Republicans Unlikely to Dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act Despite Trump’s Rhetoric

Republicans Unlikely to Dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act Despite Trump’s Rhetoric

Trump’s desire for US energy dominance and lower prices don’t align.

Trump’s desire for US energy dominance and lower prices don’t align.

US Sanctions on Iran are more symbolic than genuinely impactful in influencing behavior.

US Sanctions on Iran are more symbolic than genuinely impactful in influencing behavior.

Will China be the primary driver of incremental oil demand in 2025?

Will China be the primary driver of incremental oil demand in 2025?

Germany Stands Firm on Decarbonization Despite Energy Security Challenges

Germany Stands Firm on Decarbonization Despite Energy Security Challenges

The Growing Threat of the Dark Fleet – A Call for Global Action

The Growing Threat of the Dark Fleet – A Call for Global Action

India’s Energy Strategy in 2025 – Balancing Risks and Opportunities?

India’s Energy Strategy in 2025 – Balancing Risks and Opportunities?

My Perspective on China’s Outlook is Shifting from Pessimistic to Optimistic

My Perspective on China’s Outlook is Shifting from Pessimistic to Optimistic

China to Reach Peak Oil Products Demand in 2025 as Brent Declines by $5 to $10

China to Reach Peak Oil Products Demand in 2025 as Brent Declines by $5 to $10

Syria Faces Energy Shortage without Iranian Supplies

Syria Faces Energy Shortage without Iranian Supplies

Trump Sanctions Could Trigger Tighter Market & Higher Prices

Trump Sanctions Could Trigger Tighter Market & Higher Prices

OPEC+ Compliance Remains a Critical Issue

OPEC+ Compliance Remains a Critical Issue

Geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains extremely high.

Geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains extremely high.

The market got what it expected and needed with OPEC+ extending its cuts.

The market got what it expected and needed with OPEC+ extending its cuts.

Expectations from Trump 2.0?

Expectations from Trump 2.0?

HOT DAYS AWAIT US AND THE WORLD IN 2025

HOT DAYS AWAIT US AND THE WORLD IN 2025

I don’t think OPEC+ needs to make any significant changes.

I don’t think OPEC+ needs to make any significant changes.

Additional OPEC+ Cut Critical for Oil Market Stability in 1H2025

Additional OPEC+ Cut Critical for Oil Market Stability in 1H2025

It seems OPEC+ might delay bringing back volumes again.

It seems OPEC+ might delay bringing back volumes again.

The question today on the Mideast conflict is what Trump will do regarding Iran.

The question today on the Mideast conflict is what Trump will do regarding Iran.

How could an aggressive tariff policy by Trump impact oil markets?

How could an aggressive tariff policy by Trump impact oil markets?

It’s just a matter of time before WTI crude drops to $56 per barrel.

It’s just a matter of time before WTI crude drops to $56 per barrel.

Freight rates have remained counter-seasonally low.

Freight rates have remained counter-seasonally low.

China remains the key driver of demand.

China remains the key driver of demand.

Energy Transition and Geopolitical Dynamics Complicating Tank Storage.

Energy Transition and Geopolitical Dynamics Complicating Tank Storage.

Some independent refiners in China have started purchasing less Iranian barrels.

Some independent refiners in China have started purchasing less Iranian barrels.

How does the climate change issue look from Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest crude oil reserves?

How does the climate change issue look from Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest crude oil reserves?

What might OPEC+ take away from the Trump administration’s emerging policy direction on US oil production?

What might OPEC+ take away from the Trump administration’s emerging policy direction on US oil production?

Will American oil majors respond to a "Drill, baby, drill" policy and increase oil production in the U.S.?

Will American oil majors respond to a "Drill, baby, drill" policy and increase oil production in the U.S.?

Asia to Remain the World’s Fastest-Growing Natural Gas Market

Asia to Remain the World’s Fastest-Growing Natural Gas Market

What are the Potential Impacts of the Upcoming US Administration:

What are the Potential Impacts of the Upcoming US Administration:

How do you think the U.S. oil industry will respond to Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra?

How do you think the U.S. oil industry will respond to Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra?

Do you think we’ll see Brent crude oil dip below the $70 floor again before the year ends?

Do you think we’ll see Brent crude oil dip below the $70 floor again before the year ends?

Are the oil markets still digesting the news of Donald Trump’s reelection, or has it settled into a “business as usual” stance?

Are the oil markets still digesting the news of Donald Trump’s reelection, or has it settled into a “business as usual” stance?

There is enough oil in the world today!

There is enough oil in the world today!

Why does the oil market appear unperturbed by geopolitical risks to energy supply infrastructure?

Why does the oil market appear unperturbed by geopolitical risks to energy supply infrastructure?

No one expects this controlled conflict between Israel and Iran to go beyond what we’ve seen already.

No one expects this controlled conflict between Israel and Iran to go beyond what we’ve seen already.

Next year could be a year of reinvention for NOCs like Saudi Aramco.

Next year could be a year of reinvention for NOCs like Saudi Aramco.

I expect asset prices to rise as we approach November 5th, with further increases if Trump is elected.

I expect asset prices to rise as we approach November 5th, with further increases if Trump is elected.

US oil majors in the Permian seem to be aligning investment more with OPEC+.

US oil majors in the Permian seem to be aligning investment more with OPEC+.

It’s not a simple “Harris bad, Trump good” scenario for oil.

It’s not a simple “Harris bad, Trump good” scenario for oil.

Geopolitical risk premium appearing in marine and shipping?

Geopolitical risk premium appearing in marine and shipping?

Outlook for US and LATAM production?

Outlook for US and LATAM production?

OPEC+ made a big mistake in September when they postponed releasing volumes.

OPEC+ made a big mistake in September when they postponed releasing volumes.

The entire Iranian energy sector is very vulnerable to potential attacks and disruption.

The entire Iranian energy sector is very vulnerable to potential attacks and disruption.

Despite significant tension and disruption in the Mideast East Gulf, oil prices remain flat.

Despite significant tension and disruption in the Mideast East Gulf, oil prices remain flat.

OPEC has trimmed its 2024 forecast for China oil demand growth to 580kbd.

OPEC has trimmed its 2024 forecast for China oil demand growth to 580kbd.

China’s focus is on long-term growth and investment in high-tech sectors.

China’s focus is on long-term growth and investment in high-tech sectors.

China oil imports recovered in Q3, but we expect demand to slow in Q4.

China oil imports recovered in Q3, but we expect demand to slow in Q4.

How likely is OPEC+ to add volumes to the market in December?

How likely is OPEC+ to add volumes to the market in December?

Can China’s most recent government stimulus measures boost oil markets?

Can China’s most recent government stimulus measures boost oil markets?

Is there enough refining capacity in the pipeline to meet future Asian demand?

Is there enough refining capacity in the pipeline to meet future Asian demand?

India is emerging as a refining powerhouse.

India is emerging as a refining powerhouse.

Demand is shifting towards rapidly growing economies in East Africa and Southeast Asia

Demand is shifting towards rapidly growing economies in East Africa and Southeast Asia

There have been significant changes to oil trade flows in the past few years.

There have been significant changes to oil trade flows in the past few years.

Starting a trading arm was a strategic decision to capture incremental value.

Starting a trading arm was a strategic decision to capture incremental value.

There is No Clear Path to Net Zero

There is No Clear Path to Net Zero

Outlook for oil demand growth as we move into Q4?

Outlook for oil demand growth as we move into Q4?

October 6, 2024

How crucial is OPEC’s management of supply for the market moving forward?

How crucial is OPEC’s management of supply for the market moving forward?

October 6, 2024

The oil market is closely watching demand indicators and hurricane developments.

The oil market is closely watching demand indicators and hurricane developments.

Compliance by OPEC+ to cuts has markedly improved between Q1 and Q2.

Compliance by OPEC+ to cuts has markedly improved between Q1 and Q2.

I believe oil prices will at least hold steady here and might even increase.

I believe oil prices will at least hold steady here and might even increase.

Current price trends are encouraging for OPEC+ to increase supply as planned.

Current price trends are encouraging for OPEC+ to increase supply as planned.

There’s a stronger belief today that the supply-demand equation in oil will tighten as we move further into Q3.

There’s a stronger belief today that the supply-demand equation in oil will tighten as we move further into Q3.

The recent oil price strength is largely due to the economic environment in the US.

The recent oil price strength is largely due to the economic environment in the US.

We don’t foresee oil prices holding above $90 for an extended period this summer.

We don’t foresee oil prices holding above $90 for an extended period this summer.

We’re not far from reaching $90 a barrel.

We’re not far from reaching $90 a barrel.

We’ve seen a significant increase in energy demand in June in India.

We’ve seen a significant increase in energy demand in June in India.

Geopolitical factors are making a comeback to the oil market.

Geopolitical factors are making a comeback to the oil market.

We’re seeing a divergence between Atlantic and Pacific basin inventories.

We’re seeing a divergence between Atlantic and Pacific basin inventories.

The much-Anticipated Q3 Strength may be a Mirage on the Horizon

The much-Anticipated Q3 Strength may be a Mirage on the Horizon

What’s behind the weakness in the oil market in H1?

What’s behind the weakness in the oil market in H1?

We see oil demand quite strong in the third and fourth quarters.

We see oil demand quite strong in the third and fourth quarters.

We have been hovering in a $75-90 range for quite some time.

We have been hovering in a $75-90 range for quite some time.

The primary threat to shipping fundamentals is world peace.

The primary threat to shipping fundamentals is world peace.

What the Fed does will be more important for the oil price than what OPEC+ does.

What the Fed does will be more important for the oil price than what OPEC+ does.

How do Europe’s election results and Green Party losses stack up for the energy industry?

How do Europe’s election results and Green Party losses stack up for the energy industry?

We’re getting into the teeth of the Energy Transition.

We’re getting into the teeth of the Energy Transition.

Most of us were surprised at the election results in India.

Most of us were surprised at the election results in India.

Main relevance of the EU election outcome for energy markets?

Main relevance of the EU election outcome for energy markets?

Has Saudi Arabia shifted from a price-defensive position to seeking market share?

Has Saudi Arabia shifted from a price-defensive position to seeking market share?

This is the first time I see such confusion in the oil market.

This is the first time I see such confusion in the oil market.

What are shipping indicators telling us about China crude demand?

What are shipping indicators telling us about China crude demand?

The OPEC+ meeting outcome adds much-needed transparency back into the market.

The OPEC+ meeting outcome adds much-needed transparency back into the market.

Crude is currently well-supplied in the Atlantic basin.

Crude is currently well-supplied in the Atlantic basin.

The interplay between macroeconomic factors and oil is intriguing.

The interplay between macroeconomic factors and oil is intriguing.