Any geopolitical risk premium left in oil prices?
The oil market is more concerned about the impact of US tariffs and what will happen after the 90-day pause, to demand, GDP and trade flows. That’s more of a preoccupation than the temporary Easter ceasefire in Ukraine or any negotiations between Iran and the US. We already see that any attacks on the Houthis in Yemen are not affecting prices much, and despite the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign from the US on Iran, Iranian oil is still heading to China. Those issues have been factored into markets for more than two years. Everything now revolves around what President Trump is going to do with these bilateral trade talks.
What influence does Saudi Arabia have on the Iran-US-Israel negotiating triangle?
For Saudi Arabia, it’s more about how to protect Saudi soil and not get stuck in the middle of all of this. They have said many times: this is an Iran-Israel or Iran-US issue—they don't want to pay the price for something that they have nothing to do with. Saudi Arabia going to Iran at this early stage of negotiations was to say: we are still committed to our bilateral agreements that were brokered by the Chinese, and that Saudi remains neutral in any conflict between Iran and Israel or the US. They would probably want to play a positive role in the rapprochement between the Americans and the Iranians, but they do not want to be victims of any fallout if these negotiations fail.
Paraphrased Comments
