A notable aspect of the results, besides Macron’s setback, was the decline of the Green Party and the broader green movement, suggesting a nuanced perspective on the Energy Transition across Europe. It reflects the acknowledged reality that transitioning to greener energy sources entails higher costs, and public enthusiasm may not be as robust as anticipated. This shift sends a strong message to European policymakers, hinting at potential backtracking on Energy Transition initiatives, as already observed in the Netherlands.
What’s the significance for markets regarding the OPEC+ plan?
The upcoming monthly reports from organizations like the EIA and the IEA are anticipated to shed light on how OPEC+ adjusts its stance. OPEC+ has hitherto maintained a forecast of a 2.25 million b/d increase in oil demand growth for the year. Its’ roadmap aims to express confidence in oil demand recovery and maintain cohesion within the group, as the internal discord within OPEC+ is posing challenges, with uncertainties surrounding compliance and cheating. The production plan was basically a compromise. In terms of the outlook for markets, I think we should focus on demand, and that picture is probably improving overall. Europe is gradually picking up. The high frequency data that we saw on China in the second half of May was quite positive, with a pickup in sales of houses, cars and home appliances, so, there seems to be a more confidence. The US economy meanwhile is doing well. Fiscal deficit has increased but household and corporate
debt relative to 2008, is way down.