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Is the Coast Clear? Will this be the Year Oil Bull Sharks Come Back Out to Play?


05/02/2017
By:Gulf Intelligence

The Year of Having a Plan! And then You get Punched in the Face...

BY; SEAN EVERS

Mike Tyson once said, “everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face”, and in many ways the world, the markets and the oil industry appear to be striding into 2017 with an all will be as I want it to be smile and a plan tucked away in the top drawer – but can everyone be a winner? What happens when the Europeans slam the door on the Brexit-have-your-cake-and-eat-it plan, and the Chinese start retaliating to the Trump tweet-elect-protectionist-if I-say-so plan. Or what will be the fate of the closer to home OPEC and Non-OPEC 20-nation treaty that has rocketed oil prices up 25%, when Libyan and Nigerian oil production recover some of their lost ground, while Russia and comrades return to their historical behavior and contribute little to supply cuts?In the limbo land of the in between yesterday and tomorrow, all sunrises are perfect dawns to enchanting days where Putin and Trump’s bromance deliver Hollywood endings of continuous peaceful bull markets, low interest rates, high growth, rising incomes, a strong dollar, healthy emerging markets and most importantly, high oil prices. Ahhh – who knew economics was so simple! However, my sense is that the year ahead will not be defined by the perfectly orchestrated 2017 business plans, but rather, how players react when they get punched in the face by more of the same 2016-esque unknown unknown black swans. Look on the bright side of self-interest – at least it may trigger the return of geopolitical risk from its long absence, to inflate the oil price higher.

 

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Last Update: 06/02/2017

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