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Daily Oil Commentary by Matt Stanley


29/03/2017
By:Matt Stanley

Morning all. Brent closed last night at $51.33 up 0.58 and WTi closed up 0.64 to $48.37. It looks we rallied yesterday on the back of Libya declaring Force majeure at a couple of fields. Which is interesting considering that Libya aren't part of any production cut at the moment and the market never really priced in the fact that they had started to increase production recently. Anyway, APi data showed that the market can expect another build on crude when EIA release their figures later. We should see draws on products though owing to the time of year so I expect the market to be fairly balanced later on. I see that the news emanating from Lausanne at the FT conference is that of a bullish nature. All the forecasts that people are running show that we should start to see drawdowns on stockpiles soon. Now listen, those guys talking in Lausanne have big brains, much much bigger than mine but I would like to know how these forecasts are being run. Is anywhere globally showing that stocks are actually down? Not in the US. Not in Fujairah based on product stocks, not in ARA and not in Singapore. Perhaps I am naive but in order to properly assess the market conditions you have to look at the facts - not a forecast Johnny Bigbrain whipped on a spreadsheet whilst drinking a Triple Venti Soy No Foam Latte and playing Doom on his other laptop. Is it too early to opine that now we are at the end of Q1 it is still too early to see tangible evidence of the production cuts? Maybe. But it's quite a big maybe. The market seems to really really want to stay above $50 and I can't blame it. OPEC will push the above $50+ case until they are blue in the face. Increased US production could, in theory, wipe out the OPEC production cut but based on these increased demand forecasts we should start to balance soon. The same as those 4 shirts I have in my wardrobe WILL FIT ME AGAIN. Perhaps it is too pessimistic of me to see prices below $50 so I'm not going to go on about it anymore. The range now is $50 - $55 and I expect us to stay here for a while. Good day.

 

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Last Update: 29/03/2017

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