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Daily Oil Commentary by Matt Stanley


14/03/2017
By:Matt Stanley

Morning all. Brent closed down 0.02 last night to $51.35 and WTi closed at $48.40 down 0.09. Control. We all want it. We all want to be in control whether we acknowledge it or not. Some men think they control things and that they wear the trousers. Well let me tell you something right now mate - you don't. Your wife/partner controls things so you had better get used to it. The more you resist the more painful things will become, let it go. Driverless cars as well - nobody wants them because we like to be in control. But let me ask you this - When get on an aeroplane for 8 hours we relinquish control to something called "auto-pilot". What's the difference between being driven by a computer and being flown by a computer? Apart from the rubbish food of course. It's the thought that we aren't in control that most people don't like. Why is this important? Well this market is lacking control. It is now abundantly clear that OPEC can't control it. Even the November 2016 collaboration between OPEC and Non OPEC can't control it. So who is in control? Well Rosneft kindly answered that question for us yesterday, qte "It became evident that U.S. shale oil output has become and will remain a new global oil price regulator for the foreseeable future," unqte. Now, I think the term "regulator" is a little over the top but you can certainly see OPEC and the de facto Non OPEC leader (Russia) waving their white flags and retreating like the Arsenal back four over every single Christmas period. An oil price war some have called it. The thing is we have turned full circle, OPEC taking the stance they did threw all their cards on the table and, on current evidence, it hasn't worked so where are people looking for direction? The USofA, that's where. I think this week is crucial to give us an idea of where prices will be for the balance of the year - all eyes will be on API data later and a sniff of another big crude build and down we go towards $45. Good day.

 

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Last Update: 14/03/2017

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