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Where am I? bullet

Daily Oil Commentary by Matt Stanley


06/04/2017
By:Matt Stanley

Morning all. Brent closed last night at $54.36 up 0.19 and WTi closed up 0.12 at $51.15. Yesterday the more eagle eyed reader of my nonsense may have noticed that I said that APi predicted a build on crude on Tuesday evening. In fact APi said the opposite and they predicted a draw. But what happened? EIA showed that crude numbers built last week. So did my error even really matter? Or was it even an error? I think what it does highlight is that the market blatantly expects demand to pick up and it bought in to it like a teenager in a pub who has just turned 18. When the opposite of what was expected was announced Brent quickly retreated and at one point when negative on the day before closing marginally up. So what next? Well i think it certainly put a halt to the rally we have witnessed over the last week and it made people think "Oh noooo, we're at 55!". So it may be that 55 is technical resistance. If you believe any of that tech stuff of course. And it also seems that technical support is $50, as was evidenced last week. So a 50-55 range? Probably but it doesn't take a genius to work that out. The thing is though that the market structure more or less across the barrel is pretty flat at the minute, this means looking at other ways and means to eek out profit and if you're a crude trader then the Brent/WTi spread down the curve certainly will help any shorts you may have especially with the USA exporting more and more, albeit marginally down week on week. So rather than looking at short term demand statistics for direction i.e. EIA numbers, I think US export numbers and the arb from the US is where certain people may be looking. Good day.

 

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Last Update: 24/04/2017

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